e-Delphi Pilot Experiment of Quality of Equity Predictions in Online Groups

This paper presents the results of a pilot experiment of stock price predictions by online groups, including the research process and a summary of the results. The overall objectives of the planned research study are three-fold: to assess the effect of individual and remote group decision-making approaches to stock price predictions; to assess whether a learning effect exists through the feedback loop of an e-Delphi process; and to identify the underlying key mechanisms of the individual and of the group that influence the decision-making process. The pilot run was performed with a small group (11 participants) and three financial analysts to benchmark the group over five e-Delphi cycles (five weeks). Each participant in the pilot was asked to provide an estimation of the movement (up or down) over a one-week and three-month period of four shares as well as enter a stock price prediction for a three-month period. The pilot run has provided some indications that, in certain situations and with careful group design, stock price predictions can be superior to the predictions of experts

Deliberated Intuition for Groups : An Explanatory Model for Crowd Predictions in the Domain of Stock-Price Forecasting

Crowd predictions in the domain of stock-price forecasting is a fascinating concept. Several special-interest online communities were founded following this idea. However, there is a limited body of literature about the domain of stock-price predictions based on such a crowdsourced approach. This paper presents an empirical study in the form of a two-phase, sequential mixed-methods experiment. Data from purposefully designed groups, consisting of lay people and professional financial analysts, were examined to inform the understanding of the prediction process. The findings led to an explanatory model, which we introduce as -˜deliberated intuition for groups’. The model of deliberated intuition for groups, which is proposed here, views prediction as a process of practice which will be different for each individual and group. The model proposes that a predictor will decide, consciously or semi-consciously, either to rely on gut-feeling or to undertake more analysis

The impact of mood on decision making process

In this paper we review related literature, and present the results of an industry case study, conducted in three Arabic commercial banks, with the aim of understanding the nature of the strategic decision making process. This paper aims to assist in understanding the nature of the strategic decision making process, through a case study of three Arabic commercial banks, supported by a review of the relevant literature. The case study provides empirical evidence for the influence of mood that arises from the type of decision task and its context on the decision making process

Multiscale Computations on Neural Networks: From the Individual Neuron Interactions to the Macroscopic-Level Analysis

We show how the Equation-Free approach for multi-scale computations can be exploited to systematically study the dynamics of neural interactions on a random regular connected graph under a pairwise representation perspective. Using an individual-based microscopic simulator as a black box coarse-grained timestepper and with the aid of simulated annealing we compute the coarse-grained equilibrium bifurcation diagram and analyze the stability of the stationary states sidestepping the necessity of obtaining explicit closures at the macroscopic level. We also exploit the scheme to perform a rare-events analysis by estimating an effective Fokker-Planck describing the evolving probability density function of the corresponding coarse-grained observables

Stock Prices: Are Intuitive or Deliberate Persons Better Forecasters?

When it comes to financial decision-making like predicting stock price movements, it would be conceivable that rational people had an advantage over intuitive people. An experiment was conducted to test this hypothesis. Participants of the experiment provided repeated estimates for different shares and it was expected that rational people would end up with more ‘correct’ answers than intuitive people. Additionally, all participants of the experiment (N=59) completed a PID scale questionnaire (Betsch, 2004; Schunk & Betsch, 2006) to evaluate their preferences for deliberate or intuitive decision-making. The PID scale provided four categories to group people according to their preferences. In summary, it was concluded that intuitive people were slightly, but not significantly, better with financial decisionmaking than were rational people. A higher significance was observed from a direct comparison of the four PID categories. Predictions of PID-S-plus participants were significantly more accurate